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Abu El-Maaty, A E, El-Kholy, A M and Akal, A Y (2017) Modeling schedule overrun and cost escalation percentages of highway projects using fuzzy approach. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 24(05), 809-27.
Agyekum-Mensah, G and Knight, A D (2017) The professionals’ perspective on the causes of project delay in the construction industry. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 24(05), 828-41.
Boussabaine, A H and Duff, A R (1996) An expert-simulation system for construction productivity forecasting. Building Research & Information, 24(05), 279–86.
Caven, V (2006) Career building: women and non-standard employment in architecture. Construction Management and Economics, 24(05), 457-64.
Chan, A P C and Oppong, G D (2017) Managing the expectations of external stakeholders in construction projects. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 24(05), 736-56.
Chang, R-D, Zuo, J, Soebarto, V, Zhao, Z-Y and Zillante, G (2017) Dynamic interactions between sustainability and competitiveness in construction firms: A transition perspective. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 24(05), 842-59.
Cheah, C Y J and Liu, J (2006) Valuing governmental support in infrastructure projects as real options using Monte Carlo simulation. Construction Management and Economics, 24(05), 545-54.
- Type: Journal Article
- Keywords: Build-operate-transfer; concessions; infrastructure projects; negotiation; real option
- ISBN/ISSN: 0144-6193
- URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/01446190500435572
- Abstract:
In Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) infrastructure projects, host governments often provide subsidies, guarantees or alternative forms of support as incentives to attract private sector participation. A guaranteed level of minimum revenue, for example, can be specially designed to alleviate the concern of demand risk. Although researchers have generally acknowledged the significance of subsidies and guarantees leading toward successful negotiation, there is a lack of attempt to evaluate these concessions quantitatively. Without a deeper understanding of the value of these concessions, risk and reward may not be equitably matched in the proposed terms and arrangements. In this paper, relevant elements of a contractual package are treated as a form of real options. A proposition is put forward to incorporate the value of such options into the negotiation framework. By relying on simplifying assumptions on risk preferences, these options can be evaluated using Monte Carlo simulation of a discounted cash flow (DCF) model. The methodology is applied to the case of the Malaysia-Singapore Second Crossing, which shows that the value of a guarantee can indeed be significant relative to the basic net present value. The case study also highlights other aspects of flexibility in the design and execution of a project.
Chen, J J and Wills, D (1996) Urban housing reform in China: policies and performance. Building Research & Information, 24(05), 311–7.
Denny-Smith, G and Loosemore, M (2017) Integrating indigenous enterprises into the Australian construction industry. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 24(05), 788-808.
Edwards, D J, Shaw, A and Holt, G D (1996) Electronic document management systems and the management of UK construction projects. Building Research & Information, 24(05), 287–92.
Friedman, A and Cammalleri, V (1996) Advanced wood frame construction details in Canada. Building Research & Information, 24(05), 270–8.
Hassanein, A A G and Melin, J W (1996) Time constraints set by prime contractors for their sub-contractors. Building Research & Information, 24(05), 293–301.
Kale, S and Arditi, D (2006) Diffusion of ISO 9000 certification in the precast concrete industry. Construction Management and Economics, 24(05), 485-95.
Kaming, P F, Olomolaiye, P O, Holt, G D, Kometa, S T and Harris, F C (1996) Project managers' perception of production problems - an Indonesian case study. Building Research & Information, 24(05), 302–10.
Liu, A M M and Fang, Z (2006) A power-based leadership approach to project management. Construction Management and Economics, 24(05), 497-507.
Moore, D (1996) The Renaissance: the beginning of the end for implicit buildability. Building Research & Information, 24(05), 259–69.
Murphy, M E and Nahod, M-M (2017) Stakeholder competency in evaluating the environmental impacts of infrastructure projects using BIM. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 24(05), 718-35.
Ramsaran, R and Hosein, R (2006) Growth, employment and the construction industry in Trinidad and Tobago. Construction Management and Economics, 24(05), 465-74.
Sinesilassie, E G, Tabish, S Z S and Jha, K N (2017) Critical factors affecting schedule performance: A case of Ethiopian public construction projects: engineers’ perspective. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 24(05), 757-73.
Styhre, A and Josephson, P-E (2006) Revisiting site manager work: stuck in the middle?. Construction Management and Economics, 24(05), 521-8.
Tran, D Q, Molenaar, K R and Kolli, B (2017) Implementation of best-value procurement for highway design and construction in the USA. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 24(05), 774-87.
Wang, D, Hadavi, A and Krizek, R J (2006) Chinese construction firms in reform. Construction Management and Economics, 24(05), 509-19.
Yiu, C Y and Tam, C S (2006) Rational under-pricing in bidding strategy: a real options model. Construction Management and Economics, 24(05), 475-84.
Zhang, G and Yang, J (2006) Factors influencing the implementation of the raised floor system in Australian office buildings. Construction Management and Economics, 24(05), 529-43.