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Davies, P J, Emmitt, S and Firth, S K (2013) On-site energy management challenges and opportunities: a contractor's perspective. Building Research & Information, 41(04), 450-68.

El-adaway, I H, Ali, G G, Eissa, R, Abdul Nabi, M, Ahmed, M O, Elbashbishy, T and Khalef, R (2023) Construction Management and Economics 40th anniversary: investigating knowledge structure and evolution of research trends. Construction Management and Economics, 41(04), 338–60.

Fuerst, F, van de Wetering, J and Wyatt, P (2013) Is intrinsic energy efficiency reflected in the pricing of office leases?. Building Research & Information, 41(04), 373-83.

Himpe, E, Trappers, L, Debacker, W, Delghust, M, Laverge, J, Janssens, A, Moens, J and Van Holm, M (2013) Life cycle energy analysis of a zero-energy house. Building Research & Information, 41(04), 435-49.

Maslova, S and Burgess, G (2023) Delivering human-centred housing: understanding the role of post-occupancy evaluation and customer feedback in traditional and innovative social housebuilding in England. Construction Management and Economics, 41(04), 277–92.

Newsham, G R, Birt, B J, Arsenault, C, Thompson, A J L, Veitch, J A, Mancini, S, Galasiu, A D, Gover, B N, Macdonald, I A and Burns, G J (2013) Do ‘green’ buildings have better indoor environments? New evidence. Building Research & Information, 41(04), 415-34.

Pérez-Bella, J M, Domínguez-Hernández, J, Rodríguez-Soria, B, del Coz-Díaz, J J and Cano-Suñén, E (2013) A new method for determining the water tightness of building facades. Building Research & Information, 41(04), 401-14.

Puolitaival, T, Kähkönen, K and Kestle, L (2023) The framing of construction management responsibilities in job advertisements in the UK and the USA. Construction Management and Economics, 41(04), 307–21.

Todd, J A, Pyke, C and Tufts, R (2013) Implications of trends in LEED usage: rating system design and market transformation. Building Research & Information, 41(04), 384-400.

Vidalakis, C and Sommerville, J (2013) Transportation responsiveness and efficiency within the building supply chain. Building Research & Information, 41(04), 469-81.

Wang, Y, Yao, Y, Zhang, Y, Su, B and Wu, T (2023) Impact of industrial agglomeration on total factor productivity in the construction industry: evidence from China. Construction Management and Economics, 41(04), 322–37.

Zapata Quimbayo, C A and Mejía Vega, C A (2023) Credit risk in infrastructure PPP projects under the real options approach. Construction Management and Economics, 41(04), 293–306.

  • Type: Journal Article
  • Keywords: Infrastructure projects; real options; credit risk; control rights;
  • ISBN/ISSN: 0144-6193
  • URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/01446193.2022.2151023
  • Abstract:
    The purpose of the paper is to provide a method to estimate the credit risk in infrastructure public–private partnership (PPP) projects by using a structural model, the Real Options approach, and the Monte Carlo simulation technique. To do that, previous models are extended under a structural framework for credit risk where the embedded options in the credit agreement such as the option to renegotiate and the option to exit are introduced as well as the uncertainty of the cash flows. In that sense, all the components of expected loss (EL) such as the probability of default, the exposure, and the recovery rate for lenders are modelled and estimated in a PPP toll road project by considering the embedded options as well as the default events. Consequently, it is found that the embedded options improve the recovery rate for lenders and their EL. Additionally, practical insights about the effects of the embedded options in the credit agreement and the probability of default are provided.