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Adzivor, E K, Emuze, F and Das, D K (2023) Indicators for safety culture in SME construction firms: a Delphi study in Ghana. Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction, 28(03), 293-316.
Badenfelt, U (2010) I trust you, I trust you not: a longitudinal study of control mechanisms in incentive contracts. Construction Management and Economics, 28(03), 10.
Bradley, P E (2010) An ultrametric interpretation of building related event data. Construction Management and Economics, 28(03), 26.
Chao, L-C (2010) Estimating project overheads rate in bidding: DSS approach using neural networks. Construction Management and Economics, 28(03), 99.
Chen, H, Jin, Z, Su, Q and Yue, G (2021) The roles of captains in megaproject innovation ecosystems: the case of the Hong Kong‐Zhuhai‐Macau Bridge. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 28(03), 662-80.
Costa, M and Lisboa, I (2023) Default prediction of small and medium enterprises: Portuguese construction sector. Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction, 28(03), 439-58.
- Type: Journal Article
- Keywords: construction sector; default risk; logit; panel data; sme
- ISBN/ISSN:
- URL: https://doi.org/10.1108/JFMPC-01-2022-0004
- Abstract:
Purpose: This paper aims to study the default risk of small and medium-sized enterprises in the construction sector. Design/methodology/approach: An unbalanced sample of 2,754 Portuguese companies from the construction sector, from 2008 to 2020, is analysed. Companies are classified in default or compliant following an ex-ante criterion. Then, using the stepwise analysis, the most relevant variables are selected, which are later used in the logit model. To verify the robustness of the results, a sample of legally insolvent companies is added (mixed criterion) and the initial sample is split into two subperiods. Findings: Financial variables are the most relevant to predict the pattern for this sample. The main conclusions show that smaller and older companies, more indebted, with more liquidity and with higher EBIT have a higher probability of default. These conclusions are confirmed using a mixed criterion to classify companies as default or compliant and including a macroeconomic dummy. Practical implications: This work not only contributes to enlarging the literature review but also makes relevant contributions to practice. Companies from the construction sector can understand which indicators must control to avoid financial problems. The government also has relevant information that can help in adapting or creating regulations for recovering or revitalizing companies. Originality/value: This study proposed an ex-ante criterion that can be used for all types of companies. Most works use a legal or a mixed criterion that does not allow for detecting signs of financial problems in advance. Moreover, the sample used is almost unexplored – SMEs from a sector with great mortality rate. © 2023, Emerald Publishing Limited.
Fan, R Y C, Ng, S T and Wong, J M W (2010) Reliability of the Box–Jenkins model for forecasting construction demand covering times of economic austerity. Construction Management and Economics, 28(03), 54.
Fernando, S, Panuwatwanich, K and Thorpe, D (2021) Introducing an innovation promotion model for construction projects. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 28(03), 728-46.
Gorod, A, Hallo, L, Statsenko, L, Nguyen, T and Chileshe, N (2021) Integrating hierarchical and network centric management approaches in construction megaprojects using a holonic methodology. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 28(03), 627-61.
Hu, X, Nor, E and Hooy, C W (2023) Do political connections cause over-indebtedness? Empirical evidence from China’s listed construction firms. Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction, 28(03), 477-97.
Jewell, C, Flanagan, R and Anaç, C (2010) Understanding UK construction professional services exports: definitions and characteristics. Construction Management and Economics, 28(03), 9.
Jiang, W, Ding, L and Zhou, C (2021) Cyber physical system for safety management in smart construction site. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 28(03), 788-808.
Jones, S M, Ross, A and Sertyesilisik, B (2010) Testing the unfolding model of voluntary turnover on construction professionals. Construction Management and Economics, 28(03), 85.
Lawal, H S, Ahmadu, H A, Abdullahi, M, Yamusa, M A and Abdulrazaq, M (2023) Modeling duration of building renovation projects. Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction, 28(03), 423-38.
Liu, H, Yu, Y, Sun, Y and Yan, X (2021) A system dynamic approach for simulation of a knowledge transfer model of heterogeneous senders in mega project innovation. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 28(03), 681-705.
Liu, Y, Amini-Abyaneh, A, Hertogh, M, Houwing, E J and Bakker, H (2021) Collaborate to learn and learn to collaborate: a case of exploitative learning in the inter-organizational project. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 28(03), 809-30.
Lowe, R (2000) Defining and meeting the carbon constraints of the 21st century. Building Research & Information, 28(03), 159–75.
Machado, M V, Roche, P M L, Mustieles, F and Oteiza, I d (2000) The fourth house: the design of a bio climatic house in Venezuela. Building Research & Information, 28(03), 196–211.
MacIntyre, S, McCord, M, Davis, P T, Zacharopoulos, A and McCord, J A (2023) A spatial examination of solar PV adopters in Northern Ireland: the role of housing market and socio-economic characteristics. Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction, 28(03), 317-50.
Okanlawon, T T, Oyewobi, L O and Jimoh, R A (2023) Evaluation of the drivers to the implementation of blockchain technology in the construction supply chain management in Nigeria. Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction, 28(03), 459-76.
Pellegrini-Masini, G, Bowles, G, Peacock, A D, Ahadzi, M and Banfill, P F G (2010) Whole life costing of domestic energy demand reduction technologies: householder perspectives. Construction Management and Economics, 28(03), 29.
Saka, N and Arowoiya, V (2023) An assessment of the linkages between the construction and other sectors of the Nigerian economy. Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction, 28(03), 351-73.
Sang, L, Yu, M, Lin, H, Zhang, Z and Jin, R (2021) Big data, technology capability and construction project quality: a cross-level investigation. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 28(03), 706-27.
Smyth, H (2010) Construction industry performance improvement programmes: the UK case of demonstration projects in the ‘Continuous Improvement’ programme. Construction Management and Economics, 28(03), 70.
Stewardson, A, Edwards, D J, Asamoah, E, Aigbavboa, C O, Lai, J H K and El-Gohary, H (2023) The late payment epidemic in UK construction. Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction, 28(03), 374-97.
Thilakarathne, N, Rathnasinghe, A P, Kulatunga, U, Thurairajah, N and Weerasinghe, L (2023) An investigation of the conflict management strategies in international construction joint ventures of Sri Lanka. Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction, 28(03), 273-92.
Thormark, C (2000) Including recycling potential in energy use into the life cycle of buildings. Building Research & Information, 28(03), 176–83.
Treloar, G J, Fay, R, Love, P E D and Iyer-Raniga, U (2000) Analysing the life-cycle energy of an Australian residential building and its householders. Building Research & Information, 28(03), 184–95.
Zeng, R, Chini, A and Ries, R (2021) Innovative design for sustainability: Integrating embodied impacts and costs during the early design phase. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 28(03), 747-64.
Zhang, J, Li, H, Li, V, Xia, B and Skitmore, M (2021) Internal relationships of market-oriented EFQM enablers in the Chinese construction industry. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 28(03), 765-87.