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Arthur, A C and Pryke, S D (2014) Are we adding risk to our projects by mixing objective assessments of compound conjunctive and disjunctive project risks with intuitive approaches?. In: Raiden, A and Aboagye-Nimo, E (Eds.), Proceedings 30th Annual ARCOM Conference, 1-3 September 2014, Portsmouth, UK, Association of Researchers in Construction Management, 1399–1408.
- Type: Conference Proceedings
- Keywords: instinctive decision making; probability prediction; risk; statistical data; systems thinking
- ISBN/ISSN: 978-0-9552390-8-3
- URL: http://www.arcom.ac.uk/-docs/proceedings/ar2014-1399-1408_Arthur_Pryke.pdf
Various forms of quantitative analytical tools and techniques have emerged through the evolution of construction risk management systems but their full benefit on project performance are yet to be realised. Construction risk analysts continue to rely on statistical and probability tools in their risk data presentation whilst risk management decision-making process tends to reflect the use of intuition rather than rationality. Drawing theories and concepts from systems thinking, and behavioural sciences, the implications of applying quantitative analytical tools and techniques within an instinctive construction risk decision-making context is evaluated. The analysis of construction risk management decision making systems, and discussions relating to the instinctive processing of statistics and probability data, reveals evidence associated with the incompatibilities of mixing objective and subjective approaches to project risk assessment and response. The inference being that, effective instinctive construction risk management practices may require data formats that are compatible with instinctive decision processing. In conclusion, the research provides conceptual analytical evidences for stimulating further investigations into the appropriate format for construction risk management data analysis and presentation.