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Alzahrani, S (2015) Dynamic simulation of the impact of risk events and risk cost in KSA PPP projects, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of Engineering, University of Liverpool.
- Type: Thesis
- Keywords: complexity; construction project; effectiveness; life cycle; partnership; probability; regression analysis; risk management; Saudi Arabia; value for money
- URL: http://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/2013619/
The majority of risk events in Public Private Partnership (PPP) projects are due to the complexity of these projects. It requires the best of risk allocation to the appropriate party that is able to manage and control the allocated risks in order to achieve best value for money. Many researchers stated that the influence of a risk might trigger another risk event. Sterman (1992) identified that large-scale projects are complex and they have extremely dynamic and interdependent risks and uncertainties over their life cycle. Williams (2002) also state that in a large scale construction project the risk generally interact with each other in a nonlinear manner over time. Investigating the interaction between risk factors can help to decrease uncertainties. Dey and Ogunlana (2004) state that there it is necessity to analyse the interactions between risk events in complex projects. In recent approaches to risk management in PPP projects, experts tend to consider risk factors as being independent and ignore the influence of interaction between risk events over the project life cycle. This undermines the effectiveness of project risk estimation. In this work, further investigation on the interaction between risk factors and their impact on the risk cost in PPP projects will be investigated in Saudi Arabia based on first hand data collected from practitioner working in the kingdom. A questionnaire was designed and sent to a representative set of 250 practitioners in the field of Saudi PPP projects. 68 practitioners completed and returned the questionnaire with a 27% response rate. The collected data was pre-processed, processed and analysed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS). Using this statistical tool, regression analysis was carried out to build the equation of impact of risk events in each risk category. After that, the BestFit software was used to find best probability distribution fit for each risk factor. In This study, a new modelling approach for mapping risks and analysing the impact of risk events interaction considering the best distribution fit for each risk factor is developed using System Dynamics (SD) techniques (VENSIM software). This proposed model can help to estimate outturn construction unit cost of PPP projects and risk cost that is influenced by risk events interaction. Based on comprehensive prototyping and validation, the proposed approach is found to be robust valid tool for addressing real impact of risk events and evaluating the expected risk cost, which can help to improve risk allocation in PPP projects.