Abstracts – Browse Results

Search or browse again.

Click on the titles below to expand the information about each abstract.
Viewing 1 results ...

Alasad, R, Motawa, I and Ogunlana, S (2012) A system dynamics-based method for demand forecasting in infrastructure projects: a case of PPP projects. In: Smith, S.D (Ed.), Proceedings 28th Annual ARCOM Conference, 3-5 September 2012, Edinburgh, UK. Association of Researchers in Construction Management, 327–36.

  • Type: Conference Proceedings
  • Keywords: cause-effect diagrams; concession; demand forecasting; system dynamics
  • ISBN/ISSN: 978-0-9552390-6-9
  • URL: http://www.arcom.ac.uk/-docs/proceedings/ar2012-0327-0336_Alasad_Motawa_Ogunlana.pdf
  • Abstract:
    Concession contracts are one of the most popular PPP arrangements. However, there are still a few problems regarding the successful implementation of such arrangements, such as estimating a realistic figure for the demand of services offered by the facility. Lake of demand, or demand variation, is a widespread practice when developing infrastructure projects. In the case of concessions, such practices are the origin of significant risk as the forecasted demand is a key variable in the financial and economic evaluation of any PPP project that needs to be accurately identified and then managed. Demand forecasting is a complex and dynamic process, as several inter-related qualitative and quantitative factors affect demand. This paper proposes a system dynamics-based method in which different factors affecting demand are considered and modelled holistically. The system dynamics concept has been employed to build up a set of cause-effect diagrams which will finally be incorporated to develop a conceptual demand model. This model establishes the causal structure of the demand system, which will help to portray and define the impacts of different factors on demand volume.