Abstracts – Browse Results

Search or browse again.

Click on the titles below to expand the information about each abstract.
Viewing 1 results ...

Akintoye, A, Bowen, P A and Hardcastle, C (1998) Macro-economic leading indicators of construction contract prices. Construction Management and Economics, 16(02), 159-75.

  • Type: Journal Article
  • Keywords: forecasting; macro-economic variables; price; tender price index; time series
  • ISBN/ISSN: 0144-6193
  • URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/014461998372466
  • Abstract:

    An understanding of future trends in construction prices is likely to influence the construction investment strategy of a variety of interested parties, ranging from private and public clients to construction contrac-tors, propertyspeculators, financial institutions, and construction professionals. This paper derives leading indicators for construction prices in the United Kingdom. These indicators are based on two experimental methods: turning points of the basic indicators in relation to construction price turning points; and predic-tive power of lags of the basic indicators. It is concluded, based on the analyses, that unemployment level, construction output, industrial production, and ratio of price to cost indices in manufacturing are consistent leading indicators of construction prices. Building cost index and gross national product constitute coincident indicators. ’Popular’ macro-economic time series such as nominal interest rate, inflation rate, real interest rate, all share index and money supply produced inconclusive results.