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Beeston, D (1986) Combining risks in estimating. Construction Management and Economics, 4(01), 75-9.

  • Type: Journal Article
  • Keywords: dependence; estimating risk; independence; Monte Carlo method; statistics
  • ISBN/ISSN: 0144-6193
  • URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/01446198600000005
  • Abstract:

    A method is described which attempts to provide a practical way of building up an estimate which will be exceeded with a calculated probability. The stakes are high in a large project but a statistically rigorous method would be impossibly complex for projects with a large number of risks to consider. The method described is a compromise between precision and practicability. It follows the spirit of a full probability treatment but is appropriate to the level of reliability in the subjective evaluations of risk which form a large part of the input to any method of risk analysis.