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Alarcón, L F and Ashley, D B (1996) Modeling Project Performance for Decision Making . Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 122(03), 265–73.

  • Type: Journal Article
  • Keywords:
  • ISBN/ISSN: 0733-9364
  • URL: https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(1996)122:3(265)
  • Abstract:
    This paper presents a performance modeling methodology for application to individual projects. The model combines experience captured from experts with assessments from the project team. The methodology consists of a conceptual, qualitative-model structure and a mathematical-model structure. The conceptual-model structure, called the general performance model (GPM), is a simplified model of the variables and interaction that influence project performance. The mathematical model uses concepts of cross-impact analysis and probabilistic inference to capture the uncertainties and interactions among project variables. The GPM allows management to test different combinations of project-execution options and predict expected cost, schedule, and other performance impacts. The methodology provides a systematic and structured process for a project-team discussion on relevant planning issues in a project. Researchers should benefit from the exploratory and analytical capabilities of the methodology, as well as the flexible knowledge structure to update models and data. Computer implementation is also attractive as a means to disseminating research results.